Here are our AFL picks for Friday 7 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Sydney Swans vs Port Adelaide Power: Sydney Swans -10.5 spreads_q3, priced at -116 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Sydney Swans vs Port Adelaide Power: Sydney Swans -10.5 spreads_q3 (-116)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's break down why backing the Sydney Swans at -10.5 in the third-quarter spread against Port Adelaide is a smart play. The Swans have been on fire at the SCG, boasting an impressive margin average of 27.6 points in their last five home games. Their offensive prowess is evident, averaging 100.8 points per game during this stretch. In contrast, Port Adelaide has struggled on the road, with a dismal -24 point average margin in their last five away games. With Sydney dominating the inside 50s and shots at goal, it's likely they'll continue their scoring spree against a struggling Power defense that concedes an average of 90 points away from home. Expect the Swans to capitalize on their opportunities, snag goals, and extend their lead comfortably by the third quarter. Backing the Swans to cover the spread looks like a solid bet for this clash at the SCG.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The Greater Western Sydney Giants are ready to rumble with the Gold Coast Suns, and the numbers paint a clear picture. The Giants have been building momentum, averaging 100.4 points in their last five home games while allowing just 93.8 points. With an average of 57.4 Inside50s and 29.8 Shotsatgoal per game, they know how to apply the pressure. On the flip side, the Suns have been struggling on the road, averaging a mere 65.8 points while conceding a hefty 104 points. Their Inside50s and Shotsatgoal numbers fall short at 46 and 20.8 respectively. Considering the Giants' recent form and the Suns' road woes, giving the Giants a 17.5 point cushion seems like a smart play. Expect the Giants to capitalize on their scoring opportunities and control the game from start to finish at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's dive into this juicy matchup between the Adelaide Crows and the Richmond Tigers. Now, recent form tells us the Crows have been flying high at home, averaging an impressive 96.8 points per game over their last five matches at the Adelaide Oval. Their attacking prowess is undeniable, with an average of 52 inside 50s per game during this stretch. On the flip side, the Tigers have been struggling on the road, averaging a mere 61.2 points per game away from home. Defensively, they've been leaking points, conceding an average of 117.8 points in their last five away fixtures. Considering the Crows' scoring ability and the Tigers' defensive vulnerabilities, backing the Tigers with a +13.5 point spread seems like a smart play. With the Tigers looking to tighten up their defense and the Crows aiming to maintain their high-scoring form, expect an intriguing battle at the Adelaide Oval.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When the Western Bulldogs clash with Carlton Blues at Marvel Stadium, it's shaping up to be a tight tussle. The Bulldogs, in their last five games, have been razor-sharp at home, boasting an impressive average margin of just 0.2 points. Their offensive prowess is evident, averaging 83.6 points per game while locking down defensively, conceding only 70.2 points on average. With an average of 56 inside 50s and 25.8 shots at goal, the Bulldogs know how to apply scoreboard pressure. On the other hand, Carlton has struggled on the road, averaging a margin of 7.8 points in away games. Their leaky defense, conceding 85.8 points per game, could be their Achilles heel against the Bulldogs' attacking firepower. Backing the Western Bulldogs at -0.5 seems like a prudent choice given their recent form and scoring capabilities.
Sydney Swans vs Port Adelaide Power: Under 53.5 team_totals_h1 (-116)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright footy punters, let's dissect this clash between the Sydney Swans and Port Adelaide Power at the SCG. The Swans have been firing on all cylinders lately, snagging an average of 14.8 goals per game in their last five home fixtures. However, they face a staunch Port Adelaide defense that's been conceding just 90 points per away game and a mere 86 points overall in their recent matchups. Considering the Swans' home average of 100.8 points and Port's defensive solidity, a first-half team total under 53.5 for Sydney seems like a savvy play. With Port's ability to stifle opposition scoring and the Swans potentially facing a tougher time breaking through, the under bet presents good value here. It's all set for a tantalizing defensive battle in the first half at the SCG. Time to back the under and ride the defensive prowess on display.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When the Brisbane Lions clash with the Hawthorn Hawks at the Gabba, all eyes will be on the Hawks' offensive prowess. Over their last five away games, Hawthorn has been relentless in attack, averaging 105 points per game. However, the Lions' solid defense at home, conceding just 82.8 points on average over their last five home fixtures, could prove to be a tough nut to crack. With the Hawks averaging 57 inside 50s and 31.4 shots at goal away from home, they might find it challenging to breach the Lions' defensive setup. Considering the Hawks' away record of 16 target goals per game, staying under the 45.5 points mark in the first half seems like a plausible outcome, especially against a disciplined Lions side aiming to control the tempo early on.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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